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This is how housing prices will be in 2012

This believes the experts in the housing market in 2012.

A hot housing market has made it virtually impossible for young people to buy housing.

Never have house prices in Norway been higher.

The price hike so far this year is 9.8 percent, calculated from December 2010.

Of the largest cities, Stavanger, Sandnes and Drammen have the strongest price development so far this year with a 12 percent rise in prices.

What do experts think about developments next year?


The further we see, the more difficult it is to predict, explains economist Lisa Kristine Reiakvam at the consulting company Econ Pöryry to Bonytt.no.

In summer she estimated 8-10 percent for 2012, which was an upward adjustment compared with previous forecasts. The reasons were the favorable economic outlook.

Now these are a little weaker and Reiakvam has reduced the forecast to 7 -8 percent for 2012. An entirely reasonable estimate, she believes. An additional uncertainty factor is the crisis in the Euro area, which nobody knows where will end

If the euro countries fail to cope with the crisis and it all develops into a severe downturn, which also affects Norway, 2012 and subsequent years can look completely different, Reiakvam continues.

Clear Increase

In September Statistics Norway (SSB) wrote that increased domestic demand is expected to contribute to slightly higher growth in the Norwegian economy in the future. The agency estimates that GDP will grow by 2-3 per cent in the period 2012-2014, that unemployment will be slightly above 3 per cent and that annual salary will increase by 3-4 per cent.

Both housing prices and housing investment have risen sharply lately.

High growth in the population and real incomes, while interest rates remain low for a while, give prospects for a continued increase.

This is how housing prices will be in 2012

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Growth in house prices is forecast to increase by an average of 7 per cent over the next three years, according to Statistics Norway.

In line with the salary

– The normal historical point is that house prices grow in line with people’s income. And household income growth next year will rise by around 4 percent, chief economist Jan Andreassen believes in Terra

But housing prices are getting enough low-interest subsidies next year, so I estimate growth of 6-7%, he says. The risk is a breakdown in the euro countries or the collapse of oil prices, he points out. / p>

Make residential construction

Chief economist Kjell Senneset in the Prognosis Center has a similar analysis. He estimates a 7 per cent average growth rate in 2012. Factors that indicate continued growth mean he is the imbalance between population growth and low housing construction.

At the same time, the Norwegian economy is still stable with low unemployment. In addition, interest rates will remain low. In sum, this gives a moderate growth, he explains.

However, if the financial crisis is going to be another development, he emphasizes, but we have not made a forecast for such a scenario. It’s less than 50 percent possible.

Awaiting Forecast

Norges Eiendomsmeglerforbund (NEF) states that they do not come up with a concrete forecast before 3 January.

Manager Christian Dreyer says nevertheless that the brokers expect a positive development next year, but with less growth than in 2011.

– We went into last year with imbalances in the market. Now we see more housing in the market and new projects are being planned. These are factors that dampen price inflation in 2012. In addition, the financial turmoil creates a damper.

– In addition, we received FSA’s increased demand for home buyers’ equity from 10 to 15 percent, which could contribute to lower housing prices, he says.

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